About five minutes after the Rays knocked the Red Sox out of the playoffs last season, I started telling anyone who would listen that it was a fluke and the Rays would finish under .500 in 2009. Well here we are, about one-third of the way through the season and Tampa is sitting comfortable in fourth place, with a record of 25 wins and 28 losses. Some quick work on the abacus tells me the Rays are in indeed playing sub-500 ball.

Some folks, including Tony Massarotti, still think the Rays are the real deal:

At the end of the day, Tampa appears to have the youngest, healthiest team. The Red Sox appear to have the deepest. The Yankees need a lot of things to go right to keep their best team on the field, though New York obviously has the financial resources to plug just about any hole that might spring up during a pennant race.
How they’ll finish: Rays (division winner), Red Sox (wild card), Yankees.

Sorry, Tony, I’m not seeing it. I’m sticking with Red Sox taking the division, Yankees taking the wild card and Tampa finishing a distant third.

SG Nation, what’s your vision?